Backtesting

CHF/JPY — H4

A.V. MAGIC 4.4.19 · Long only · 4 Aug 2003 → 25 Sept 2025 · 22.14 years

Fixed-size test · 0.01 lots · $10,000 initial deposit

801 Trades
1.35 Profit factor
53.06% Win rate
6.74 Return / drawdown
45.50% Maximum drawdown
12.07% CAGR

Cumulative return

0%500%1000%200320082012201720212025CHF/JPY — Cumulative return+1125.9%

Cumulative return on the $10,000 test account, rebuilt from the report's own trade-by-trade record.

Drawdown

-40%-30%-20%-10%0%200320082012201720212025CHF/JPY — Drawdown-45.5%

How far the account sat below its own previous high at every point in the test. The deepest point is the maximum drawdown — rebuilt here from the trade record, and it matches the 45.50% the report states.

Return by year

2003: +5.0%2004: +30.5%2005: +16.1%2006: +7.9%2007: +23.0%2008: -16.1%2009: +18.0%2010: -0.5%2011: +22.5%2012: +10.9%2013: +58.1%2014: -1.7%2015: +24.7%2016: +5.5%2017: +9.1%2018: +16.4%2019: +11.4%2020: +7.7%2021: -3.9%2022: +0.1%2023: +16.3%2024: +11.7%2025: +11.5%-20%0%20%40%60%2003200720112015201920232025CHF/JPY — Return by year

Compounded return for each calendar year of the test.

Month by month

264Months traded
58% Profitable months — 153 of 264
19/23Profitable years
Monthly return as a percentage of account equity at the start of that month.
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYear
2003+22.9-7.4-18.5+13.3+5.0
2004+13.6-8.6-3.4+12.9+1.5-1.8-6.5+6.6-10.0+11.3+10.5+4.7+30.5
2005-12.7+31.9+5.8-9.5-0.5-2.8-5.4+6.4-11.2+21.1-0.7+1.3+16.1
2006-7.0+8.7+7.2-8.4+5.3+4.7-7.4+5.7-8.1-2.7+11.0+1.4+7.9
2007+1.3-3.9+2.4+8.3+0.8+7.8+2.8-7.5+13.3+0.8-7.3+4.3+23.0
2008-2.0+2.9+6.0-2.7+4.6-0.1-4.3-10.2+15.0-33.1+16.5-16.1
2009-17.5+17.3+33.5+1.7+4.6-2.6+4.2-14.0-18.6+12.9+1.2+5.7+18.0
2010-13.2-1.7+22.1+0.1-11.2+13.4+9.5+1.7-2.6-1.7-9.0-2.5-0.5
2011-2.8+8.5-1.4+3.1+1.6-3.4+30.3-4.8-4.3+10.5-10.7-0.6+22.5
2012+6.8+9.0-2.2-3.7-6.8-2.8-4.5+4.0-1.2-1.0+6.7+7.8+10.9
2013+34.7-7.8+2.7+13.0-3.9+2.4+0.0+2.2-4.5+1.9+2.6+9.4+58.1
2014-3.6+3.3-0.3-2.9-1.9+0.6-1.7-0.3-0.9+6.1+5.1-4.5-1.7
2015+53.6-8.7-4.7-4.7+1.9-1.4-0.6+3.8+0.6-2.5-1.1-2.7+24.7
2016-4.1-1.4+5.5+0.3-5.9+3.9+6.1+1.1-7.0+0.0+6.1+1.9+5.5
2017+3.3+3.0-5.7-2.0+3.8+1.5-1.3-1.6+1.7+1.5+1.8+3.2+9.1
2018+9.4-2.5+2.3+0.2+0.2+0.0+1.8+4.9+2.0-2.0+0.3-0.9+16.4
2019+3.0+2.9+1.7+0.2-1.1+0.3+0.1-0.9+2.7+2.0-1.0+1.2+11.4
2020+0.7-1.8-4.0+1.6+2.2+1.5+1.5-0.8+2.2+0.8+2.6+1.0+7.7
2021-1.1+0.9-0.5+0.2-0.9-0.0+1.3-2.4-1.4+0.8-1.4+0.7-3.9
2022-1.8+1.4+0.8+3.2-1.4+6.8-3.3+3.2-1.6-3.7-4.1+1.1+0.1
2023-0.4-0.3+2.2+5.2-1.2+4.1+0.4+0.4-2.6+0.4+2.7+4.6+16.3
2024+1.5+0.5+1.6+1.1+2.8+0.0-1.4-2.8+0.8+6.7-1.8+2.4+11.7
2025-3.2+3.6+0.3+3.7+0.0+4.4-0.1+0.5+2.0+11.5

Trade composition

  • Winning vs losing trades

    425 wins(53.1%)376 losses

  • Gross profit vs gross loss

    $438,799 won(57.4%)$326,205 lost

  • Average win vs average loss

    $1,032.47 per win(54.3%)$867.57 per loss

  • Longest winning vs losing streak

    7 wins in a row(46.7%)8 losses in a row

How the result breaks down across every trade in the test.

Fixed-size test · 0.01 lots · $10,000 initial deposit

Statistics

Wins / losses ratio
1.13
Payout ratio
1.19
Expectancy
$140.57
Standard deviation
$1,491.19
Market exposure
25.22%
Average bars in trade
12.58
AHPR
48.95
Z-score
1.81
Z-probability
3.51%
Longest stagnation
1,110 d
Stagnation
13.78%

Trades

Winning trades
425
Losing trades
376
Gross profit
$438,799.44
Gross loss
$326,204.84
Average win
$1,032.47
Average loss
$867.57
Largest win
$24,418.61
Largest loss
-$4,543.29
Longest winning streak
7
Longest losing streak
8
Average bars in wins
14.07
Average bars in losses
10.91

Headline metrics

Net profit
$112,594.60
Total return
+1125.9%
Sharpe ratio
0.56
Average trade
$140.57
Average yearly profit
$5,117.91
Average yearly return
51.18%
Maximum drawdown
$16,717.59
Annual return / max drawdown
0.27
R expectancy
0.16
Strategy quality number
0.94
SQN score
0.36
Profit in ticks
902,002

Source document

CHFJPY BUY H4 A.V. MAGIC 4.4.19.pdf

PDF · 36 pages · 352 KB

The source report also contains breakdown charts (profit by hour, by weekday, long versus short, by trade duration) and the trade-by-trade list.

SHA-256b52e62e50138a8d896c4007afe7d499e3feabe25f160196655e7f5593d57cb78

Simulated results. These figures come from historical backtests, not live trading. Backtested performance is hypothetical, benefits from hindsight, and is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Our live, independently verified track record is on the results page.