Backtesting
XAU/USD — H1
Strategy 1.7.18 · Long only · 5 May 2003 → 1 Aug 2025 · 22.24 years
Fixed-size test · 0.01 lots · $10,000 initial deposit
Cumulative return
Cumulative return on the $10,000 test account, rebuilt from the report's own trade-by-trade record.
Drawdown
How far the account sat below its own previous high at every point in the test. The deepest point is the maximum drawdown — rebuilt here from the trade record, and it matches the 4.97% the report states.
Return by year
Compounded return for each calendar year of the test.
Month by month
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | +2.1 | +0.4 | -0.3 | +0.5 | +0.7 | -2.4 | +0.8 | ||||||
| 2004 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +0.8 | +0.1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | +0.3 | +2.8 | ||||
| 2005 | +0.4 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.6 | +0.7 | -1.9 | +0.2 | -4.1 | |||
| 2006 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +2.5 | +3.2 | -0.9 | +0.7 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +1.8 | +0.5 | -0.9 | +8.6 |
| 2007 | +0.6 | +1.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 | +1.4 | -0.3 | -0.4 | +0.3 | +3.4 | +1.5 | +2.8 | +2.7 | +12.5 |
| 2008 | +3.0 | +1.3 | +0.3 | -0.1 | +0.9 | +0.5 | -1.7 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +2.1 | +0.6 | +1.2 | +9.3 |
| 2009 | +2.4 | +1.6 | +0.4 | +1.4 | -0.4 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.5 | -0.0 | -0.1 | +1.0 | +8.3 | |
| 2010 | +2.2 | +1.8 | +0.3 | +1.5 | -0.4 | +0.1 | +1.3 | +2.1 | +1.5 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +1.6 | +14.0 |
| 2011 | +1.5 | -0.3 | -0.5 | +0.6 | +0.3 | -1.1 | +0.4 | +3.6 | +0.1 | -1.6 | +0.2 | +3.1 | |
| 2012 | +2.3 | -0.0 | -1.0 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.5 | -0.8 | +0.3 | +1.9 | +1.2 | +1.5 | -0.7 | +5.9 |
| 2013 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -0.0 | +1.7 | -0.4 | +0.3 | -0.1 | -0.7 | +1.7 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -1.5 | -1.2 |
| 2014 | +0.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 | +0.4 | +1.6 | +1.7 | -2.4 | +1.2 | -0.4 | -0.2 | +1.0 | -0.5 | +2.4 |
| 2015 | +1.7 | -0.3 | -0.6 | +2.4 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | -0.6 | -0.8 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | -0.8 | +0.3 | +1.8 | -0.2 | -0.4 | +2.4 | -1.3 | +0.4 | +1.0 | -1.2 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +3.6 |
| 2017 | -0.3 | -0.7 | +0.9 | +1.5 | -0.6 | +1.4 | +1.3 | -0.8 | -0.3 | +0.7 | +0.0 | -0.9 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | -0.5 | +0.8 | -1.1 | +0.8 | -2.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | +0.8 | +1.8 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +0.7 | |
| 2019 | +1.3 | +0.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 | +2.2 | -0.3 | +1.1 | +2.9 | -0.9 | -0.3 | -0.6 | +1.3 | +5.7 |
| 2020 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +0.8 | -0.4 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.4 | +4.0 | |
| 2021 | -0.2 | -0.9 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 | +1.4 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | +0.9 | +0.8 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.0 | +0.4 | +0.0 | -1.0 | -0.2 | +0.9 | +1.5 | +2.4 | |
| 2023 | +0.4 | -0.7 | +1.0 | -0.5 | +1.0 | +0.7 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.4 | +1.4 | +0.9 | +0.9 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | -0.4 | -1.1 | +0.9 | +0.1 | -0.0 | +1.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.6 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | -0.6 | +0.2 | +0.0 | +0.8 | +0.0 | -0.4 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
Trade composition
Winning vs losing trades
501 wins(52.8%)448 losses
Gross profit vs gross loss
$41,863 won(58.9%)$29,164 lost
Average win vs average loss
$83.56 per win(56.2%)$65.10 per loss
Longest winning vs losing streak
8 wins in a row(53.3%)7 losses in a row
How the result breaks down across every trade in the test.
Fixed-size test · 0.01 lots · $10,000 initial deposit
Statistics
- Wins / losses ratio
- 1.12
- Payout ratio
- 1.28
- Expectancy
- $13.38
- Standard deviation
- $91.30
- Market exposure
- 0.48%
- Average bars in trade
- 4.74
- AHPR
- 5.52
- Z-score
- -0.56
- Z-probability
- 71.23%
- Longest stagnation
- 723 d
- Stagnation
- 8.91%
Trades
- Winning trades
- 501
- Losing trades
- 448
- Cancelled / expired
- 1
- Gross profit
- $41,863.25
- Gross loss
- $29,164.15
- Average win
- $83.56
- Average loss
- $65.10
- Largest win
- $199.63
- Largest loss
- -$128.73
- Longest winning streak
- 8
- Longest losing streak
- 7
- Average bars in wins
- 5.25
- Average bars in losses
- 4.16
Headline metrics
- Net profit
- $12,699.10
- Total return
- +127.0%
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.93
- Average trade
- $13.38
- Average yearly profit
- $577.23
- Average yearly return
- 5.77%
- Maximum drawdown
- $915.85
- Annual return / max drawdown
- 0.76
- R expectancy
- 0.21
- Strategy quality number
- 1.47
- SQN score
- 0.60
- Profit in ticks
- 10,588
Source document
The source report also contains breakdown charts (profit by hour, by weekday, long versus short, by trade duration) and the trade-by-trade list.
SHA-2566b46ed55c757ea927aba0452c7f1f0a31d7730bb8f5304b6bdae088abbac10e4
Simulated results. These figures come from historical backtests, not live trading. Backtested performance is hypothetical, benefits from hindsight, and is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Our live, independently verified track record is on the results page.